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|Aug 15 2018||Public post|
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3 things you need to know:
One: Binance launches educational platform. The platform will be known as Binance Academy. Binance Academy will offer educational resources about blockchain and cryptocurrencies. So far the site consists of only a few videos and a glossary of common terms, but the content library should grow quickly given that much of the content will be submitted by the community.
“We have taken great care in adopting a platform that is open for both consumers and producers of contents. Users are free to suggest new topics they would like to learn about and also submit their work for review and sharing alongside Binance produced contents on Academy.”
Middle ground: It’s beneficial to have a central location that people can go to to learn about crypto and DLT. There are a number of high calibre resources such as Princeton’s Bitcoin course, and there are thousands of youtube videos which are easily accessible, but the space is lacking a middle ground of curated quality content that isn’t too high level. Binance Academy aims to fill that void.
Two: Joseph Lubin is unconcerned about the slump in crypto market. Joseph Lubin, the co-founder of Ethereum and founder of Consensys says that each crypto bubble only makes the crypto space stronger. They bring in attention, investors, and developers. The fact that there have been six progressively bigger bubbles now and crypto still isn’t “dead” speaks to the resilience of the technology.
Settling in: Dumb money comes in on the way up, and dumb money leaves on the way down. But smart money, developers, and enthusiasts come in on the way up and never leave. You tell with the number of blockchain projects that continue on regardless of the price, and the record number of funds launching despite the massive decline in market cap.
Three: South Korea and China to invest more capital towards blockchain research. Korea’s government is expected to spend $8.8bn researching 8 sectors, including blockchain, and state-led companies will invest $26bn over the next 4 years into those sectors. China is planning to open a new blockchain lab to further research the nascent technology.
Blockchain arms race: This news comes as many governments around the world are racing to implement conducive blockchain and cryptocurrency regulations and conduct groundbreaking research on the technology. Top countries are competing to be the leader in blockchain technology, as it will provide them with a huge economic advantage in coming years.
Where is the U.S? The U.S. is lagging behind Asian countries in terms of investment in research and the development of good regulation in the crypto and blockchain space. The U.S government is currently looking into devoting more resources towards blockchain, but are moving slowly. Without a substantial uptick in pace, they will be left behind by Asian competitors who have been more proactive.
Also in the news:
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We failed to break below 6k, which invalidated the short position discussed yesterday. On the 4hr chart, we see a clean break of the 6.2k resistance level, and a steady climb up to 6.4k. I’m expected a retest of 6.5k, with the most crucial level being 6.55k. If we close a daily above 6.55k, we are likely to see a test of 6.8k.
The bearish case is a strong rejection of 6.5k, which would likely send us down to 6.2k (and send alts tumbling along)
If we break 6.8k on this run, it’s likely we begin a strong uptrend to the 7.8k level, as we will have printed the first higher low in 2018.
Fear & Greed
We are solidly in fearful territory, which gives hope that the market is overly fearful. Shorts are outnumbering longs by a significant amount right now, with a majority of them underwater right now. A move upwards would trigger an immense short squeeze.
If you’ve been paying attention to the markets recently, you may have noticed that alt coins have been taking an absolute beating.
Ethereum is now (for the first time in it’s history) lower than it’s price from a year ago. This dramatic pop of the alt-bubble has everyone in a tizzy, wondering why. As we’ve discussed before, a “flee to safety” is common in a bear market.
Moving forward, a run in BTC will likely be lagged by alts. Over the next few months, correlations are likely to breakdown. BTC dominance is at high of 2018 (55%), rising from the mid 30’s at the beginning of this year.
Around the corner:
BTW here’s the reason we tell you about futures expiry dates:
What I’m reading today:
“It all started in Feb 2017 on a beach in southern Thailand. Thailand's king passed a few months prior, so the party atmosphere was subdued. Accompanied by a good friend of mine and one of the best shitcoin traders in the game, we headed down the beach in search of a party.
One of his big shitcoin positions at the time was Pepe Cash. This was the precursor to Crypto Kitties. For those not in the know, PepeCash is "rare pepe" memes hashed onto a blockchain. The next killer app to be sure. Pepe Cash was on a mini run, and my boy constantly monitored the market.
We didn’t find a poppin' party, but we did find special shakes. The bartender didn’t think we were sideways enough so he went in the back to get the real stuff. Over the next few hours we walked for miles, met interesting tourists and locals, and waxed philosophical about shitcoins.
On our ride back to our hotel, I noticed something strange. Our Tuk Tuk driver was wearing a trucker hat with a Pepe the Frog logo on it. Not trusting my eyes, I nudged my friend to confirm what I saw. He concurred that our driver was sporting a Pepe hat. My friend immediately whipped out his phone to check the market. Perhaps they saw what we did. Pepe Cash was pumping and he bought some more.
We both looked at each other and knew it was a sign that something special would happen in 2017. What actually happened was far beyond what we could have ever imagined.”
That’s just the introduction.
He goes on to introduce some really interesting insights about the markets, life, and crypto.
The bottom of the 2015 bear market came around the same time people starting shutting off their ASIC miners. That’s ~5k at current electricity prices in China
VC’s got entrapped in the excitement of crypto, and most are now underwater — having never exited their positions. They’re dumping hard now.
“The herd of token VC punters will all decide to sell at the same time. If you don’t sell, and the market continues falling, you lose your job. So everyone sells simultaneously but who can eat all that shit? Retail cannot because the deals would never have gotten so large without institutional money. So we gap lower, first on tokens, then on the mothership Ether.”
Bitmain is IPOing now because leadership thinks that Bitcoin will continue to slide, and profitability will dramatically decrease in the coming months.
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