Spread the Knowledge
|May 10 2018||Public post|
Good morning everyone, Avi here! For those of you who don’t know me, I’m a partner at Ledger Capital. I started this newsletter as a way to help people stay on top of crypto news that matters, with no paid promotions so you can trust the information being delivered. My goal is to not just update you, but give you context on why developments matter.
Top 3 things you need to know:
One: Bloomberg and Mike Novogratz’s hedge fund introduced a new crypto index. Mike Novogratz is known for an all or nothing approach, and his latest foray into cryptocurrency is no different. The crypto index curiously omits some top ten coins, giving us some insight into Mike’s personal holdings and the projects he and Bloomberg view as promising.
Why this matters: Wall street adoption is necessary for wide spread acceptance of cryptocurrencies. Having in institutional grade index allows for funds to benchmark more easily and for investors to have a vetted guideline for diversification.
Two: Former economic advisor to Trump, Gary Cohn, believes there will be one global crypto to rule them all. But he doesn’t think it’s going to be Bitcoin!
Cohn was quoted on CNBC saying “I'm not a big believer in bitcoin. I am a believer in blockchain technology”.
Cohn is passionate about blockchain technology, and believes that “we will have a global cryptocurrency at some point where the world understands it and it's not based on mining costs or cost of electricity or things like that”.
He also seems to be thinking about a project, saying in reference to blockchain, “I do have an idea for a project…It would be an interesting concept playing on the knowledge I know from the banking world, in running a regulated bank, but in a digitized world.”
Why it matters: Regardless of whether you agree on his take, this is good for crypto. Cohn is not known for shying away from his beliefs, and its more likely than not he brought up his strong belief in blockchain during his White House tenure. We can only hope Trump agrees with him on blockchain more than they agreed on tariffs.
Three: NYSE owner (ICE) is working on a Bitcoin trading platform. If I was a fund based on solely on algorithmic strategies, I would be looking at pivots. As Wall Street enters cryptocurrency, trading and investing opportunities for average investors (other than hodling) will dry up as inefficiencies are beaten out of the market.
My take: This isn’t something to worry about short term, but if you’re thinking of building a career out of trading, it’s something to keep in the back of your mind.
I’m reading this today:
CZ believes that VC’s are outdated, and ICOs are the model of the future. His main points are straightforward.
ICO’s are easier, don’t dilute ownership and VC’s aren’t better at picking good projects than retail investors.
My take: I agree on the first two points, but am not sure I get with the third. The entire job of a VC is to vet projects. If we assume everyone in the world was of average ability, then just by having more time to devote to research a VC would be better.
Thoughts: ICOs are a revolutionary new way of raising capital, and have enabled access to entrepreneurship in ways we haven’t seen before. There is a lot to be said about the future of capital markets and how they will be disrupted by blockchain. I think that CZ’s article has some good insights into why ICOs have caught on so heavily.
JP Morgan is ramping up investment into blockchain technology. Their last head of blockchain tech left to start her own, unnamed company, so they’ve hired someone new in hopes of pushing forward. If you look closely, you can see Jamie Dimon regretting his bitcoin comments more.
Things I like:
Releases are around the corner. Do you have more? Always like to feature tips from readers on events — shoot an email to firstname.lastname@example.org
UTRUST is releasing an online store that takes advantage of the UTRUST protocol
Cardano is launching version 1.2, which theoretically comes with a new testnet
Switcheo (SWH) has a mainnet release planned for May 16th.
Stratis has smart contracts in C# coming out on May 16th as well.
Monero is added to Circle, at the same time Zcash is found to be flawed.
Zcash differs from Monero in that privacy is optional.
Researchers at University College of London published a paper detailing that optional privacy opens the Zcash blockchain to blockchain analysis.that reveals previously “private” transactions.
Be smart: Zcash cannot address this flaw without revamping their entire system. If you want to stay truly anonymous using Zcash, you must send every transaction privately and ensure no one send you any non-private transaction.
My take: Monero will remain king when it comes to anonymous transactions, and price action may reflect that.
Bitcoin still can’t decide what to do:
Technicals: Bitcoin is still stuck in the 8.8k - 9.4k range. Bullish move to watch is a 4hr close above 9.4k on high volume which signals another run at 10k. Bearish move to watch is a 4hr close of below 8.8k which could see us heading down to previous support at 7.8k.
Fundamentals: With the SEC commissioner offering a softer regulatory stance on crypto, Wall Street developments and Consensus coming up, the fundamentals and environment for Bitcoin (which I treat as a proxy for the market) are looking better than they have in months.
Moves I’m making:
Note that my moves are short term, and do not constitute financial advice nor do they incorporate long term fundamentals of project. My moves are not endorsements of the validity of a project. Trades are almost always dependent on BTC movement, and large movements down in BTC would invalidate most set-ups. Stay aware.
IOTA. With the massive news about Qubic coming, and a bullish graph, I’m increasing my IOTA positions over the next two weeks. I am not setting a stop loss, as I believe the announcement of Qubic will bring favorable price movements. For those will traditional risk tolerance, stop loss should be at the previous resistance of $2.00.
EOS. EOS has retraced from its highs, and has formed a bullish pennant similar to Iotas graph. Starting a position here until a week before mainnet launch on June 1st, where I will re-evaluate. Stop loss set at $16.5 at the bottom of previous resistance.
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